Description
Introduces principles of risk and decision analysis as they apply to project management, outlining strategies for effective decision-making while sharing insights into such areas as the typical inaccuracies of single point estimates and knowing when sufficient analysis has been performed to identify a best alternative.
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Schuyler has over 25 years of experience in economic evaluation, training, and management. Here he presents a text on decision analysis (DA), the discipline which aids decision makers in making sound choices under conditions of uncertainty. Coverage includes an overview of the concept of decision analysis; how DA applies to project risk management; a general problem-solving process; details about project modeling; the use of probability distributions for uncertain inputs; some emerging techniques including critical chain project management, optimization, and expert systems; and a brief tutorial about probability rules. The text is based on articles contributed by the author to the magazine, PM Network , from 1992 through 2000. Written for project managers. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
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