An important and timely study of some of the key new challenges that Israel will face in its second half-century. It addresses both external developments in the Middle East, and the impact of domestic changes on Israel's foreign and security policies.
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This paper examines the foundations of Israeli security policy and analyses the impact of changes in the external threat environment and in domestic politics and society. It argues that the traditional policy of deterrence based on "offensive defence," elaborated under David Ben-Gurion and his successors, is no longer adequate in the face of the new challenges posed by low-intensity warfare and weapons of mass destruction. Israel's ability to meet these challenges depends to a large extent on the fate ofthe peace process. This in turn hinges, at least in part, on the outcome of the domestic contest over the future character of Israeli politics and society. This contest is essentially between two positions: one inward-looking or "backlash," the other outward-looking or "internationalist." Its outcome will have long-term implications for Israel's security policy, both in terms of the kinds of threats that the country will face, and how well it will be able to deal with them.
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